Baseball 2006

Friends,

Here lies the 2006 fantasy baseball draft postmortem. This draft marks the rebirth of our league as a keeper. When I think back to this fateful occasion, one word will come to mind: "clusterfuck." Many of us had a hard time recalibrating ourselves based on the new world order inherent in the switch to keeperism. To quote Andrew, "after the first hour I got bored." I think I was the only person who wasn't. I feel your pain, but I would have been happy to keep going.

It figures that a draft in which everyone's equilibrium was perpetually messed up results in no team getting so much as an A- from me. But on the flip side, nobody got below a C. So, am I simply giving the benefit of the doubt to people whose opinions are different than mine, or am I just a big fat pussy for refusing to tear each of my friends a new one? You decide:

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Lowell Expectations (Jeff)

Hits: Scott Rolen (8), Barry Bonds (10), Justin Morneau (14), Jose Guillen (16)
Misses: Jhonny Peralta (3)
In Five Words: Bonds Is Clean? Please God...
Super Troopers Character: Mack
Grade: B+

I entered this draft thinking that I'd skew towards young prospects. Attentive colleagues may note that I generally would not shut up about youngsters and rookies. That's not how it worked out, though. I ended up taking value picks over mining the youth of Major League Baseball, and based on the outcome I'm happy I did.

On the flip side, I want that Peralta pick back. Ugh. Probably my all-time worst pick ever. That was the moment I realized "damn, I need to cut this crap out." So I got spooked after that, and sat on guys I wanted (Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman, Andy Marte) because I didn't want to reach anymore. So instead I pounced on starting pitching, which was awfully undervalued. And not just shaky veteran starters like Vazquez and Mussina, but younger guys too, like Daniel Cabrera, Chris Young and Ervin Santana. I think that worked out pretty well.

As for my roster, I'd like to have another outfielder. I picked up Brady Clark as a fifth OF, but I'd rather have more of a power player. Barry Bonds will get suspended for life eventually, and I need to have a Plan B for when that happens. Another weakness is the bullpen, since Bobby Jenks apparently has a case of Byung-Hyun Kim Disease. If Jenks doesn't pan out, my bullpen is an out-and-out disaster.

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Ninja Blacksox (Lehr)

Hits: Adam Dunn (3), Jeff Francoeur (11)
Misses: Geoff Jenkins (8), Robinson Cano (10)
In Five Words: A-Scrod Fellated By Fat Cow
Super Troopers Character: Farva
Grade: C+

I'm beginning to wonder if I grade everyone exactly the same every year, based on stupid shit like "does he root for the Yankees?" and "is he short and hairy?" But I don't like how this team looks. TONS of pitching, but not so much with the hitting beyond A-Rod and Adam Dunn. I'm usually wrong about these kinds of things... I still can't figure out how his football team won a single game last year. It was just an awful, awful team, and Lehr won anyway. So what do I know?

Anyway, I think Lehr would do well to keep his eyes planted on the waiver wires in the first couple weeks, and recycle some of his busted old junk for a big fat New Hotness suppository. I might also wait a month and spin one of the Peavy/Halladay/Myers troika into some offense.

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The Larch (Rusch)

Hits: Travis Hafner (5), Paul Konerko (9), Brad Wilkerson (17), Brian Fuentes (18)
Misses: Marcus Giles (6), Andy Pettitte (8)
In Five Words: Two And A Hafner Men
Super Troopers Character: Officer Smyth (What ABOUT the piece stuck to my shoe??? SHIT!!!)
Grade: C+

I like what Frank did. I like the reach for Teixeira above Vlad... you take injury-resistance and plate discipline ahead of a few stolen bases. And I love the Hafner pick, that's one of the great picks of this draft... he could have been a 2nd-rounder based on expected production, and Frank got him 5th. But now there's no room to play Paul Konerko (another steal) and his team is otherwise awfully light on power. Juan Pierre is good, but Brian Giles and Brad Wilkerson are borderline players. Wilk might see a return to his 2004 form in Arlington, but that's not certain. If I were Frank, I'd try to spin off Konerko for a power outfielder, someone better than Giles. Not that there are very many out there, but hey who knows.

Still, I like his approach to the pitching staff... his starters kinda suck, but he's got major reliever power in Shields, Duchscherer and Rodney. When I went all-in on setup guys last year, I had Duchscherer, Turnbow and Fuentes also. They did me well... I wish I'd done something like this in the late rounds instead of taking a douche bag like Mussina. And what's more is if Frank wants to pick someone off of waivers, all it would cost him is a setup guy that nobody else really wants.

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No Hop-Ons! (Chas)

Hits: Todd Helton (5), Mark Loretta (14), Erik Bedard (18), Mike Gonzalez (23)
Misses: Jose Valverde (12)
In Five Words: Driving-While-Intoxicated All-Stars
Super Troopers Character: The German Guy
Grade: B-

My love for Chas' drafts is well-documented, but it bears mentioning that his seasons rarely work out as well as his drafts do. This year is different... I don't know what to make of his draft. On the one hand, a few picks (Jason Bay, Jose Valverde, Jeremy Bonderman) were real reaches. On the other hand, there were some really nice value picks (Todd Helton, Bobby Crosby, Mark Loretta) to offset them. With Vlad Guerrero anchoring, he should be all right, but something about this team looks funny to me.

The only helpful judgment I can come up with is that it reminds me of one of my teams, and I mean that in a bad way. I've had shitty teams (the 2004 edition specifically) where I look at my roster before the season and see no holes... I look at it after the season and see how well people did, for the most part... and then wonder how the hell I lost so damn much. That's what this feels like to me.

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Jean-Luc Picard (Andrew)

Hits: Rickie Weeks (13), Bartolo Colon (7), Jeff Kent (10)
Misses: Edgar Renteria (8), Cliff Floyd (9)
In Five Words: This Is The Captain's Log
Super Troopers Character: Officer Rando (sit down, Rando...)
Grade: C+

Not a bad draft. The Soriano pick elicited some groans, but it's not that bad a pick for the 3rd round, even with RFK factored in, if only because second base is a fantasy wasteland right now, and Soriano is still *the* premier offensive 2B-eligible player until proven otherwise. Personally I think each of the Renteria and Floyd picks did more damage than the Soriano pick, given who else was available at 8 and 9 that would've helped him more most likely (Konerko, Isringhausen, Smoltz, Beckett, Myers). His bullpen is thin, pending Foulke's likely return to form.

On the flip side, it's tough to go wrong with Manny Ramirez, who is an underrated fantasy player even at #5 overall if only because his numbers are guaranteed. Never hurt, never slumping, always ends up around .300/40/120. For all the Jeff Kent jokes during the draft, he's a perfectly fine fantasy 2B, and he's in a somewhat better lineup this season. I love the Rickie Weeks and Aubrey Huff picks. And the rotation is pretty good-looking, with two ass-kickers up front and pretty good depth.

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Snoreoles (Charles)

Hits: Randy Johnson (7), Jason Giambi (13), Curtis Granderson (19)
Misses: Chone Figgins (2), Jon Garland (11)
In Five Words: B12 Delivery On The Way
Super Troopers Character: The Dimpus Burger Kid
Grade: B+

I'm taking an anti-establishment position by marking Chone Figgins as a miss in the second round, but that's largely because we're not in a 5x5 league. We're in a league that values a stolen base in one way, and a home run in six (HR, RBI, R, OPS, TB, AVG). Hence I think spending a big pick like that on someone with very little power upside is a mistake. Nothing against him as a player, just as a 2nd-round pick. In fact, Figgins is a big reason why Charles' offense looks as good as it does. Good power across most of his starting lineup, and those who don't are stolen-base machines (Figgins and Podsednik).

However, I docked him a grade level because of his starting pitching situation. It can easily be addressed in trade (hi Charles!) or free agency, as April is historically a time to reevaluate what the hell you were thinking when you drafted so-and-so in the so-and-so-th round. But for now, Charles' two best pitchers are major injury risks, Jon Garland has more fluke potential than anyone since Esteban Loaiza, Livan is merely OK as a fantasy player, and Suppan/Marquis have low ceilings compared to their high potential for implosion. Furthermore, his top two closers are about 98 years old combined. Chris Ray as the only young arm on the roster.

Charles is probably the most competent fantasy player in this group (FU GARY!) so I will assume his goal was to concentrate on building an offense with shelf life, and not waste any time on his pitchers, since they are easily combustible anyway. Regardless, he's going to have to be extremely vigilant on waivers to make that work for this season.

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Fuq Yo Couch (WMD)

Hits: Jim Thome (11), Jeremy Hermida (12), Josh Willingham (16)
Misses: Ryan Howard (3), Derek Jeter (8)
In Five Words: Wacky D's Out The 'Offs
Super Troopers Character: Thorny
Grade: B+

Gary had a very smart draft, but that letter grade is only because he executed a youth movement so effectively.

This team is risky at best for 2006. His outfield power relies on a comeback from Carlos Beltran and the expected (but still uncertain) emergence of Jeremy Hermida. I'm also not sold on Ryan Howard, as you can tell. I think a third-round pick on him is a little much for a power-hitting first basemen, which are a dime a dozen... hell, Gary got Jim Thome with an 11th-round pick, and Thome might outperform Howard. I would've gone a different direction. (I wonder if I could have picked Peralta twice...) Anyway, as with Figgins, I like the player, but it was too early.

But all nitpicking aside, Gary did his usual stockpile-the-relievers act, and got a ton of rising stars in Hermida, Utley, Howard, Liriano, Cain, Tracy, Burgos and Willingham. He's essentially guaranteed himself at least two or three young studs by October. What's more is that his elder statesmen are Thome and Jeter, neither of whom is a key piece of the puzzle should they break down. He'll have his work cut out for him when it comes time to pare down to his keepers.

Whether this translates into wins now remains to be seen, but I doubt it. I don't have the extreme gloom-and-doom outlook that Frank has, mostly because Gary (like Charles) usually makes things work. Then again, he also usually has A-Scrod at his disposal. So who knows.

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Fiesta de los Pendejos En La Boca (Kabir)

Hits: Mark Prior (12), Ryan Zimmerman (15), Placido Polanco (23)
Misses: Jimmy Rollins (3), Barry Zito (9), Aaron Rowand (13)
In Five Words: It's An Autodraft, Bitches!
Super Troopers Character: Ursula
Grade: C

Autodraft didn't do so well by Kabir, though the team's in OK shape.

Santana's tough to argue with. The other starters are fine (Sabathia, Patterson, Zito) but hardly fearsome, although that situation will be totally different if Prior actually takes the mound this year.

The outfield is a mess. Only gimpy/slumpy Berkman is a legitimate power threat, and the rest are 15-20 HR types at best (Damon, Hunter, Swisher, Bradley, Rowand). Lee and Ensberg, meanwhile, are almost certainly going to regress a little. Basically, there's no rock-solid power source to rely on... until we see how the season shakes out, I'd be kinda uncomfortable about this.

But it's not all PBR-upper-deckers and rotten-eggs-behind-the-radiator for Kabir. He pulled a fast one on us by grabbing both Andy Marte and Ryan Zimmerman. What a bastard. I'm guessing these were manipulations of the ranking queue made during breaks in the wedding. (It's amusing to me that Jesse was right about Kabir being involved. I thought Jesse was just having a nervous breakdown.) Getting Joe Mauer was another nice play, if not exactly a value selection. I like the thinking behind sewing up one's catcher slot for the foreseeable future... Chas, Kabir, and possibly Gary won't have to fret over the likes of Michael Barrett and Bengie Molina ever again.

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L.A.B.I.A. (Jesse)

Hits: Miguel Cabrera (1), Prince Fielder (12), Zach Duke (13), Tim Hudson (15), Oliver Perez (18)
Misses: Grady Sizemore (5), Richie Sexson (7)
In Five Words: Liberate Felix Before Imprisoning Felix
Super Troopers Character: Foster
Grade: C+

Jesse fell into the same trap I fell into on Jhonny Peralta, except worse. As a result, his roster is very, VERY pitcher-heavy. They're all young and upcoming, but the slant is so extreme that he really doesn't have a single viable bench option on offense, unless you count J.D. "Weekends On The D.L." Drew, which I do not. He's in a position where he needs Prince Fielder to hit, or he's got no chance. If Alix is gonna be infuriated about something, it should be THAT, not the duration of the draft.

Regarding the reach for Felix, which defines Jesse's draft more than anything else, I think it's a fair reach. First of all, better to reach for a guy of Felix's caliber than a guy like, ohhhh, a shortstop who bats ninth and can't spell the name "Johnny" properly. Second, I can guarantee that if Jesse wanted Felix on his team, he had to take him there, because I would have grabbed him myself on my turn. Say what you will about the wisdom of spending a #2 on him, but Jesse seems to share Gary's disdain for the 2006 season. Third, my reaction to Felix is different from my reaction to Ryan Howard because Hernandez is a once-in-a-decade pitching prospect, whereas Howard is another fat lefty first baseman.

Anyway, it should be noted that Jesse's "I'll fill your UTIL slot..." comment was classic. I'm amazed that I enjoyed the joke to the extent that I did. Just goes to show, you can't beat a good formula.

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Shitburger (Kelvin)

Hits: Huston Street (5), Hank Blalock (17), Kevin Millwood (19)
Misses: Eric Chavez (8), Ken Griffey Jr. (10)
In Five Words: I Say Fuck You, Jobu
Super Troopers Character: Rabbit
Grade: B-

I expected to laugh all the way through this, but I actually kinda like this team. Papi and Abreu are good co-anchors. Oswalt/Sheets up front is a good 1-2, provided Sheets gets healthy and Oswalt stays that way. I'm no fan of Isringhausen but I like Huston Street. The picks I don't like (Izzy, Chavez, Griffey) are personal more than anything. And given that Sheets is approaching Mark Prior territory with his injury problems, I would be very concerned about him.

If you look at the starting lineup, and the rotation, this isn't a bad team at all. I mean, it's thin at SP, but who isn't at this point? And so what if his bench sucks, it doesn't matter at this point anyway. Better to feel unattached to them so they're easier to waive. The point is that his lineup is competitive despite drafting from the #8 position.